Friday, May 4, 2007

Inequity In the Electoral College

This is some "analysis" I did of the possibilities and characteristics of the way that the Electoral College is set up.

States won by 1 Population Electoral Votes States won by2 Population Electoral Votes
California 36132147 55
North Carolina 8683242 15
Texas 22859968 35
Virginia 7567465 13
New York 19254630 31
Massachusetts 6398743 12
Florida 17789864 27
Missouri 5800310 11
Illinois 12763371 21
Tennessee 5962959 11
Pennsylvania 12429616 21
Washington 6287759 11
Ohio 11464042 20
Arizona 5939292 10
Michigan 10120860 17
Maryland 5600388 10
Georgia 9072576 15
Minnesota 5132799 10
New Jersey 8717925 15
Wisconsin 5536201 10
Indiana 6271973 11
Alabama 4557808 9

166876972 268
Colorado 4665177 9



Kentucky 4173405 9



Louisiana 4523628 8



South Carolina 4255083 8



Connecticut 3510297 7



Iowa 2966334 7



Oklahoma 3547884 7



Oregon 3641056 7



Arkansas 2779154 6



Kansas 2744687 6



Mississippi 2921088 6



Nebraska 1758787 5



Nevada 2414807 5



New Mexico 1928384 5



West Virginia 1816856 5



Hawaii 1275194 4



Idaho 1429096 4



Maine 1321505 4



New Hampshire 1309940 4



Rhode Island 1076189 4



Utah 2469585 4



Alaska 663661 3



D.C. 550521 3



Delaware 843524 3



Montana 935670 3



North Dakota 636677 3



South Dakota 775933 3



Vermont 623050 3



Wyoming 509294 3




129533432 270
Total Voters 85107255
Total Voters 77720059
Votes Won 85107255
___268
Votes Won 39637230 [270
Votes Lost 0
Votes Lost 38082829
Vote Total 2 124744485
Vote Total 3 39637230

That table shows how it would be possible for a candidate to receive in excess of 75% of the popular vote, yet still lose due to the electoral count, and that is with clear majority wins in every single state, not pluralities brought on by three or more candidates. If you included those possibilities, the discrepancy would be even larger. The situation has one candidate winning states worth 268 electoral votes, and carrying them with 100% of the vote. The remaining states are split 51/49 in favor of the other candidate. While such an occurrence is so unlikely as to be virtually impossible, it highlights what I believe to be a deep flaw in the means by which we elect our commander in chief. The pie chart below illustrates the incongruency very well:

The following table expresses the relative worth of each individual vote, as compared in multiples of Florida, which I found has the least value of any other state.

State Population Electoral Votes Per Vote Rank Worth (Multiples of Florida)
Alabama 4557808 9 506423 24 1.3
Alaska 663661 3 221220 5 2.98
Arizona 5939292 10 593929 43 1.11
Arkansas 2779154 6 463192 19 1.42
California 36132147 55 656948 50 1.003
Colorado 4665177 9 518353 27 1.27
Connecticut 3510297 7 501471 23 1.31
D.C. 550521 3 183506 2 3.59
Delaware 843524 3 281174 8 2.34
Florida 17789864 27 658883 51 1
Georgia 9072576 15 604838 45 1.09
Hawaii 1275194 4 318798 10 2.07
Idaho 1429096 4 357274 14 1.84
Illinois 12763371 21 607779 46 1.08
Indiana 6271973 11 570179 36 1.16
Iowa 2966334 7 428047 17 1.54
Kansas 2744687 6 457447 18 1.44
Kentucky 4173405 9 463711 20 1.42
Louisiana 4523628 8 565453 35 1.17
Maine 1321505 4 330376 12 1.99
Maryland 5600388 10 560038 34 1.18
Massachusetts 6398743 12 533228 31 1.24
Michigan 10120860 17 595344 44 1.11
Minnesota 5132799 10 513279 26 1.28
Mississippi 2921088 6 486848 22 1.35
Missouri 5800310 11 527300 29 1.25
Montana 935670 3 311890 9 2.11
Nebraska 1758787 5 351757 13 1.87
Nevada 2414807 5 482961 21 1.36
New Hampshire 1309940 4 327485 11 2.01
New Jersey 8717925 15 581195 40 1.13
New Mexico 1928384 5 385676 16 1.71
New York 19254630 31 621117 48 1.06
North Carolina 8683242 15 578882 39 1.14
North Dakota 636677 3 212225 4 3.1
Ohio 11464042 20 573202 38 1.15
Oklahoma 3547884 7 506840 25 1.3
Oregon 3641056 7 520150 28 1.27
Pennsylvania 12429616 21 591886 42 1.11
Rhode Island 1076189 4 269047 7 2.45
South Carolina 4255083 8 531885 30 1.24
South Dakota 775933 3 258644 6 2.55
Tennessee 5962959 11 542087 32 1.22
Texas 22859968 35 653141 49 1.009
Utah 2469585 4 617396 47 1.07
Vermont 623050 3 207683 3 3.17
Virginia 7567465 13 582112 41 1.13
Washington 6287759 11 571614 37 1.15
West Virginia 1816856 5 363371 15 1.81
Wisconsin 5536201 10 553620 33 1.19
Wyoming 509294 3 169764 1 3.88

As you can see, most of the states have similar worths to Florida, while a few peak much higher than the rest. In particular, a vote in Wyoming is worth nearly four times as much as a similar vote in Florida, with Washington DC not being very far below Wyoming.

Worth # of States
1 3
1.1 10
1.2 9
1.3 7
1.4 5
1.5 1
1.7 1
1.8 2
1.9 1
2 2
2.1 2
2.3 1
2.5 1
2.6 1
3 1
3.1 1
3.2 1
3.6 1
3.9 1

The preceding table shows the distribution of vote value among the states. States worth 3 or more times Florida are very rare, with only 5 of them, making up less than one-tenth of the total. On the other hand, states worth less than twice that of Florida number 39. This next chart contains the same information as the table above, just in a more aesthetic way.

One of the bedrock fundamentals of the idea of the United States of America is equal justice under law. As it stands now, people's votes in presidential elections are far from equal. When someone's vote is worth nearly four times that of another's, that is not an example of equal treatment under the law. The way it is set up now should be changed; the Electoral College doesn't work in a country that values equality. It should be replaced with direct popular voting, Instant Run Off Voting, or any of a number of alternatives that provide for every single person's vote to be worth and treated the same. No one should be granted special statuses, or lesser ones.