Domino Theory

The Iraq War’s architects espoused a neo-domino theory in support of it. Where in Southeast Asia, it was feared that if one country fell to the onslaught of Communism, another would follow, and then another, like a chain of dominoes. In Southwest Asia, it was, and in some circles still is, hoped that if one country, in this case Iraq, could be converted to a Western style liberal democracy, others in the region would follow. An assumption of theirs was that democratic Arab states would be inherently more pro-American, anti-extremism. This doesn’t seem like it would necessarily be the case, considering the electoral victory of Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Mahmoud Ahmadenijad in Iran.

So they assumed that planting the seed of democracy in Mesopotamia would allow it to flourish throughout the region, eventually supplanting the widespread hatred of America with an oasis of pro-western thought. It’s not that democracy is the end in its self, it’s merely a means. Otherwise the base fact of elections would please them; instead, they condemn the results when the winner is a group or a person that they don’t approve of. While there have been elections in countries through out the near east, these may be in spite of what is happening in Iraq, and not inspired by it.

Also, an election does not make a democracy. A democracy must be embraced by the populous, and the entire form of government must be based around it. Without that foundation, an election will not accomplish anything. There are elections in Cuba, China, and Iran; there were elections in Saddam’s Iraq. Elections do not make a democracy.

A different sort of domino effect seems to have happened. Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, extremism and terrorism has flourished, arriving in places that it hadn’t been before, at least not in its present form. It has destabilized the region, leading to additional wars, and setting the stage for civil wars in other countries.

Instead of engendering peace, just last war there was a war between Israel and Lebanon that took over 1,500 lives in the course of a month. Right now, internecine fighting between rival Palestinian factions has raised the threat of a Palestinian civil war. Right now, the worst infighting in Lebanon since the end of their civil war seventeen years ago is occurring. Since 2003 there has been a low-level insurgency against the Saudi monarchy. There has been an increase in terrorism in England, Spain, Turkey, the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Jordan, and Egypt. There have been many attempted attacks in many other countries as well.

If the goals of the Iraq war were to disarm Saddam of his weapons of mass destruction, establish a liberal democracy in Iraq, hinder the efforts of Al Qaeda and related groups, promote democracy throughout the region, liberate the people of Iraq, and ensure the security of the United States, it has been a failure on every account.