The risk of the powers-that-be starting another war has never seemed to be higher. Right now, there seems to be a real, coordinated effort to push up support for such a thing, and to attempt to justify it.
If the people pushing for another war, and the people who control whether or not there’ll be one, believe even half of the things they’re saying about Iran, about Iran’s nuclear program, support of insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan, funding and equipping of Hezbollah, and all the other claims that keep getting thrown around more and more, if they actually believe only half those things, it would be remarkably surprising for them to decide to not go with a military attack.
That was one of the things that most worried me about the Bush administration continuing past 2004, that they would take the extra time they were given to try to redeem themselves for the catastrophe that Iraq turned out to be by trying to go after another country, hopefully with a more successful outcome. The reckless insanity of the whole thing’s something I can’t get my head around.
If and when they do decide to attack, it will be very much different from the fighting faced with the Iraqi military during 2003. Before the war, however many years ago that is now, it was promoted, almost sold, no, not almost, it was sold to the American public and the world like a product would be. The advertising for it touted how easy it would be, its low, rock bottom, super value savings price, which would take care of itself through oil revenues. It was going to be quick acting, lasting only weeks, six months at most. Most of all, it was going to be a miracle cure for most things that were wrong in the world. With Saddam out of power, Al Qaeda would shrivel away from lack of support, elections in Iraq would trigger a tsunami of change which would sweep across the near east, nascent democracies blooming like wildflowers. Americans liked what they saw and bought the product, the rest of the world didn’t.
While there has been a wave of change across the region, it’s gone in a very different direction than what was hoped for and expected. Unfortunately, there is very little truth in advertising. Almost everything they claimed before the war turned out to be false, not just understandable mistake false, but “how in the world could they have been so absolutely wrong about everything?!” false.
They were right about one thing though, the war was easy, at least the war that they thought they were going to fight. That war, the one against military forces acting under the command of Saddam Hussein, and in defense of his baathist government was extremely quick and easy, at least when looked at from a historical perspective. A hundred and fifty thousand troops were able to go into a foreign country, defeat its army, assume uncontested control, and dismantle an entire government in a period spanning from March 20 to May 1, little over a month.
Just two hundred of the invading soldiers were killed in that war. That’s not an insignificant number of people, of lost brothers, fathers, sons, husbands, daughters, wives, mothers, sisters, and best friends. Still, to be able to completely assume control of another country in around a month with around two hundred thousand soldiers, and lose only two hundred of the people on that side is an accomplishment unparalleled in military history.
The war that’s turned out to be not such an easy task is the one that followed those first months. The two wars are altogether dissimilar ones, and it has been the unexpected, disorganized guerrilla war that’s dragged on for five years that’s been the difficult one, not the war against
The efficacy of guerilla warfare is really testified to by the fact that a 400,000 strong military force, equipped with tanks, artillery, and all the armaments of a conventional military, can be defeated in a month by a force half its size, while inflicting only two hundred fatalities to the other side. In contrast, an unorganized, untrained ragtag force of at most a few tens of thousands, armed with assault rifles, RPG’s, roadside bombs, car bombs, and little else, can hold that same two hundred thousand strong army in a stalemate for five years, while inflicting over four thousand casualties. We weren’t sold that war that would come after the war.
If it wasn’t for that one, many of the promises we were told might’ve been kept, though the justification, reason, rationale for the entire escapade would still have turned out to be just as false. If they give the order to launch an attack on
I hope, more than anything, that I am wrong about this. I would never be happier for being completely wrong; the problem is that I don’t think I am. Right now, the advertising campaign going on in the media for another war is practically screaming. They’ve got a window of fourteen months left, and while the chances that an attack may happen certainly won’t end after the next president takes office; I’ll certainly be able to breathe a sigh of relief.
